Really depends on what you do and value. I use lots of kde software, so kde distros are my go to. then one big diffrence between distros is how they get updated. do you want the latest updates asap on the costs of stability, or do you want an effing never crashing distro but lag behind in updates a few months/years, or a middleground.

These are the two points i considered when i choose.

as a hige indi/small developer fan i see great times ahad. AAA will fail, clmpanys will close and developers will find new homes in smaller teams. by 2030 i predict a golden age for AA and and perhabs also a new golden age for indi.