This is an interesting take, especially coming from a non-gaming focused tech website like Ars Technica. I feel like it’s been too long since people were truly hyped about half life 3 though, and this wouldn’t be enough, even if Valve did go through with it.
People are increasingly unhappy with windows though, and the EoL of windows 10 may push people to Linux anyways.
We already got half life 3. It was called half life alyx specifically to get away from the massive pressure that came with the meme.
Its also important to know valves strength is that they don’t need to pump out games, they make profit enough though steam. This makes sure they can put time in exploring new concepts and innovation and only release games that maintain the perception of excellence, which they could lose fast if they released a “mid” tier game.